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Events and Impact On Oil Markets (1992 - 2008)¹⁷⁰

In Fifteen years during the last half of the 20th century major disruptions in world oil supplies have occurred. Six of those instances
decreased the world oil supply by at least 2 million barrels per day¹⁶².
- Suez War - 1956
- Six Day War - 1967
- Arab Oil Embargo - 1973
- Iran Revolution - 1979
- Iran/Iraq War - 1981
- Iraq Invades Kuwait - 1991
The 1973 Arab Oil Embargo¹⁶³ was the first oil supply disruption to cause major price increases and an energy crisis¹⁶⁴.
- U.S. refiners made short-term changes in oil purchasing and began importing crude oil from any available source. About 30% less of
  the more costly crude oil was imported during the embargo. Iran at the time appeared to be a stable, long-term source. Iran moved to
  expand sales to the United States, and these imports served to offset losses from Kuwait and Libya until Libyan crude oil imports resumed
  in early 1975.
- Imports from other Arab OPEC countries resumed shortly after the embargo ended in March 1974, and continued to climb through
  1977. Despite production buildups from the North Sea and Alaska, Arab OPEC's share of U.S. crude oil imports increased from nearly
  26 percent in 1973 to 36% in 1977, when imports were than at historic high levels which were not again reached until 1994.
- The refining industry moved to develop technology and processing methods to reduce fuel consumption and to increase
  operating efficiency.
- The embargo caused sudden price hikes and short-term shortages of refined products after decades of ample supplies and
  growing consumption. Tight supplies caused lines to form at gasoline stations. All petroleum products were much more costly. From
  1972 to 1975, when OPEC restored output to pre-embargo levels, consumers were paying approximately 57 percent more for leaded
  regular gasoline and 91 percent more for home heating oil. These increases reflect the increase in world oil prices over the period.
  The large jump in energy prices is widely considered to be a cause of the economic recession that occurred in 1974 and 1975, though
  some later economic studies indicate that other factors may have contributed.
- Various efforts were undertaken to conserve energy and to switch from petroleum to less expensive alternative fuels.
  Petroleum consumption declined both in 1974 and 1975 as a result of conservation efforts. Alternative fuels in some industrial and electric
  utility facilities replaced large volumes of distillate fuel oil and residual fuel oil.
- To plan for future supply disruptions and to establish secure stable supplies, the United States joined with 20 other nations in
  1974 to form the International Energy Agency (IEA). Member nations, including the United States, developed plans to establish
  strategic reserves for use in any future supply disruptions.
- Legislation was put in place over the next several years that had a significant impact on all aspects of the petroleum industry.
In 1950, the United States provided 52 percent of the world's crude oil production; by 1997 that figure had dropped to 10 percent. Virtually
all spare oil production capacity was in the Middle East when the Arab Oil Embargo began in October 1973. Supply disruptions increased in
severity as world oil production increased and production shifted to less secure areas of the Middle East¹⁶⁵.
In 1986 OPEC members led by Saudi Arabia introduced netback pricing which led to an Oil Glut¹⁶⁶. Prices collapsed to $9.85 per barrel.
- The collapse of crude oil prices in 1986 reversed the upward trend in U.S. production of the first half of the decade. Many high-cost
  wells, which became productive after the oil crisis of 1978-1980, became unprofitable in 1986 and were shut in. Domestic crude oil
  production began dropping in early 1986. After the world price fell more than 50 percent between January and March 1986, drilling
  plummeted. Since then, domestic drilling and production have gradually declined.
- The net effect of the decline in domestic production beginning in 1986 was an increase in crude oil imports, which climbed from
  3.2 million barrels per day in 1985 to 9.1 million barrels per day in 2000. Most of this increase was met by OPEC, whose share of total
  U.S. crude oil imports rose from 41 percent in 1985 to 60 percent in 1990, before dropping to 46 percent in 1995-1997. Since 1998, the
  share has gradually increased, reaching 51 percent in 2000.
- Oil company investments began shifting to foreign oil exploration and production after the 1986 price drop. Foreign fields are
  generally much larger than in the United States and average production costs are lower. Changes in policy in the former Soviet Union
  since 1991 have increased U.S. production investment there, and recent moves toward foreign investments in Mexico have attracted
  American exploration and production companies.
- The sharp drop in crude oil prices pushed U.S. petroleum demand steadily higher in the second half of the decade. From 1985 to
  2000, demand climbed from 15.7 million barrels per day to 19.5 million barrels per day.
- Until 1986, the value of U.S. petroleum imports comprised between 15 percent and 32 percent of all imported goods. The steep
  decline in petroleum prices in 1986 reduced petroleum's portion of the U.S. trade deficit.
- The economy expanded at a faster pace in 1987 and 1988. Low petroleum prices stimulated growth in industrial production,
  employment increased, and travel picked up. Temporary conservation measures that had been instituted during earlier oil price
  escalations were discontinued. The overall energy intensity of the economy (measured by the ratio of total energy consumption to the
  constant dollar level of the Gross Domestic Product), a reflection of energy conservation, did not increase between 1986 and 1988.

The share of total U.S. consumption of imported oil has grown since oil prices collapsed in 1986. Gross imports account for 53 percent of
U.S oil consumption¹⁶⁷.
The Iranian Revolution, which began in late 1978, resulted in a drop of 3.9 million barrels per day of crude oil production from Iran from
1978 to 1981. In 1980, the Iran-Iraq War began, and many Persian Gulf countries reduced output as well. By 1981, OPEC production declined
to 22.8 million barrels per day, 7.0 million barrels per day below its level for 1978¹⁶⁸.
- Over the same period, as U.S. refiners imported proportionately more crude oil from Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and other
  non-OPEC countries, OPEC's share of U.S. crude oil imports fell from 82 percent to 41 percent.
- The high cost of crude oil stimulated exploration and production operations in non-OPEC countries, prolonged the productive
  life of marginal wells, and made secondary and tertiary production techniques profitable. In addition to these trends, development projects
  in the North Sea, Mexico, and the North Slope of Alaska began to contribute significantly to world crude oil supplies. By 1985, non-
  OPEC production comprised 69 percent of total world production, up from 50 percent in 1978. These trends allowed U.S. refiners to tap
  new sources of non-OPEC supply.
- The higher oil prices depressed U.S. petroleum consumption and encouraged fuel-switching and energy conservation. Other
  fuels replaced petroleum in many applications, and industrial processes, appliances, equipment, and motors were made more efficient.
  These developments had a large impact on U.S. petroleum demand, which from 1978 to 1983 fell from 18.8 to 15.2 million barrels per day,
  the lowest level since 1971.

Iraq invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990, causing crude oil and product prices to rise suddenly and sharply for the third time in 17 years
reaching about $36 per barrel¹⁶⁹.
- Permanent energy efficiency improvements had been made to U.S. automobiles, housing, and industrial machinery since the
- Iranian Revolution. The development of multi-fuel boilers had enhanced industrial and electric utility plants' ability to switch from petrol
  eum when its price relative to natural gas became too high.
- The b need felt during the 1970s to build up stocks in anticipation of market tightness or uncertainty had been reduced. This resulted
  from the realization that SPR oil could be available if supply shortages occurred, and from the utilization of the futures market to hedge
  against large swings in price.
- Participants in the futures market in the 90 days following the invasion were mostly refiners, airlines, and chemical companies who
  used oil and wanted to guarantee prices for their customers. There was no apparent increase in speculative activity, and the futures market
- did not contribute to the run-up in prices or to price volatility. The rise in crude oil and petroleum product prices occurred because
  of uncertainties regarding the spread of the invasion and replacement of supplies. After peaking in mid-October domestic and worldwide
  prices dropped substantially by the end of 1990.
- European supplies were tight after Kuwait's petroleum product exports to Europe and the Far East ceased. The United States
- began exporting motor gasoline to countries in Western Europe that had previously been sources of imports. Exports of distillate fuel
  oil and kerosene-type jet fuel to Canada and the Far East escalated, also. Product exports from Kuwait had not returned to pre-crisis levels
- by the end of 1992.

¹⁶² Major Disruptions of Oil Supply. 2000. Energy Information Administration.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/25opec/sld001.htm

¹⁶³ Petroleum Chronology of Events. 2002. Energy Information Administration.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/chronology/petrochrohotgraph.htm

¹⁶⁴ Major Disruptions of Oil Supply. 2000. Energy Information Administration.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/25opec/sld001.htm

¹⁶⁵ Major Disruptions of Oil Supply. 2000. Energy Information Administration.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/25opec/sld001.htm

¹⁶⁶ Petroleum Chronology of Events. 2002. Energy Information Administration.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/chronology/petrochrohotgraph.htm

¹⁶⁷ Imported Oil. 2000. EIA.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/25opec/sld002.htm

¹⁶⁸ Petroleum Chronology of Events. 2002. Energy Information Administration.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/chronology/petrochrohotgraph.htm

¹⁶⁹ Petroleum Chronology of Events. 2002. Energy Information Administration.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/chronology/petrochrohotgraph.htm

May 1992

Saudi Arabia supports a crude oil price hike during a late-month OPEC meeting. NYMEX Futures prices exceed $22 per barrel..

July 1993

Oil prices plunge on speculation that Iraq will accept U.N. missile test site inspections and receive approval to resume oil exports.

September 1996

Following U.S. cruise missile strikes on military facilities in southern Iraq, crude oil prices rise as the market speculates when Iraq will begin exporting oil under U.N. Resolution 986. Benchmark Brent Blend for October rises above $22/barrel amidst the uncertainty. The U.S. attack follows an raqi-supported invasion of Kurdish safe haven areas in the country's northern area. Subsequently, President Bill Clinton states that the U.N. oil-for-food sale should be postponed indefinitely.

March 2000

The United States Supreme Court overturns the State of Washington's law establishing state regulation of oil tankers, ruling unanimously that federal laws take precedence. The attempt to impose tougher regulatory standards came in the wake of the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster in Alaska. New York Mercantile Exchange front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract closes at $34.13 per barrel, the highest level in nine years.

September 2000

Oil prices close at $37.20 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), after trading as high as $37.80 during the day's trading session. The price spike comes amid an increase in tensions between Iraq and Kuwait. This level sets a new tenyear high for NYMEX crude oil.

October 2000

Oil prices rise sharply on news of a terrorist attack on an American warship, the USS Cole, in the Yemeni port of Aden, as well as escalating violence between Palestinians and Israeli security forces. November crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rises $2.81 to close at $36.06 per barrel.

December 2000

Natural gas prices in the United States surge above $10 per million British Thermal Units (BTUs) first time ever in response to cold weather and stockdraws reported by the American Gas Association

May 2001

Natural gas futures plunge 6% to a 10-month low on speculation that growing U.S. inventories will help power plants meet summer demand for airconditioning. The price for June delivery fell 23.5 cents, to $3.738 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Natural gas prices had reached a high of $10.10 per million Btu on December 27, 2000, but then fell sharply beginning in late January 2001.

July 2001

Faced with declining oil prices, OPEC ministers agree to cut crude oil production quotas by about 4%, or one million barrels per day. The cut will take effect September 1, and is aimed at maintaining the price of the OPEC basket of crude oils at around $25 per barrel. Crude oil futures for September delivery climbed 47% per barrel, to $26.78, on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) after the announcement.

September 2001

Oil prices decline sharply, after an initial spike to $31 per barrel, following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States, largely on increased fears of a sharper worldwide economic downturn. Crude oil and petroleum products futures fall to their lowest levels in nearly two years amid fears that a recession will reduce energy demand. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), crude oil set for October delivery falls $3.96 to $22.01 per barrel, and crude oil for November delivery falls $3.82 to $22.44 per barrel. Over the past six trading sessions crude oil and gasoline futures have fallen more than 26% and heating oil futures have fallen nearly 29%.

October 2001

Crude Oil for November delivery falls to its lowest level since August 1999 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Light, sweet crude falls 50% per barrel to settle at $21.31 per barrel. Brent crude for December delivery closed at $20.36 at London's International Petroleum Exchange (IPE), down 37% per barrel. Poor economic prospects in the next few months, and OPEC's inability to respond so far are seen as factors contributing to the sliding prices of crude oil.

November 2001

Crude oil for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) falls to a two-year low after OPEC members warn that a downward price spiral could occur if major non-OPEC oil exporters do not reduce oil production. The NYMEX price settles at $19.92 per barrel, down 10% per barrel from the low of November 5, and the first time it has been under $20 per barrel since mid-1999.

December 2001

Crude oil prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) record one of their largest one-day jumps of the year as traders become convinced that OPEC will follow through on production cuts. Prices per barrel for February delivery settle at $20.27 per barrel, an increase of $1.65, or 8.4% higher than the December 21 closing price (the last day of trading before the holiday weekend). Also contributing to the price increase was the return of cold weather to the northeastern United States and forecasts that show that the cold weather pattern may continue. Nevertheless, prices are still considerably lower than one year ago.

March 2002

Light, sweet crude oil for April delivery on the NYMEX closes at $23.71, the highest price since September 21, 2001, when oil prices had temporarily spiked because of the September 11 terrorist attack. Oil prices have been on the rise because of OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts, an improving U.S. economy, and concern over U.S. intentions toward Iraq.

August 2002

The NYMEX near-month crude oil futures price closes above $30 per barrel for the first time since February 2001. Concern over possible conflict in Iraq, OPEC quotas, and declining crude oil and product stocks are among the factors leading to a nine-straight-session rise in NYMEX prices.

December 2002

The near-month crude oil futures price on the NYMEX tops $30 per barrel for the first time since October 2, as the general strike in Venezuela impacts the world oil market. Later in the month, on December 27, the near-month crude oil futures price rises to $32.72 per barrel, the highest price since November 2000.

January 2003

The near-month crude oil futures price on the NYMEX settles at $34.61 per barrel, the highest price since November 29, 2000. The market is experiencing a variety of higher price pressures, including the strike in Venezuela, fears of a conflict in Iraq, a cold winter in the United States, and low commercial oil stock levels in the United States.

March 2003

The near-month (April) crude oil futures price at the NYMEX settles at $37.83 per barrel, the highest near-month settlement price (in nominal terms) since October 1990. This comes as EIA reports today that commercial crude oil inventories for the previous week declined by 3.8 million barrels to 269 million barrels. This is below the 270 million barrel lower operational inventory level, which, while not implying shortages, operational problems, or price increases, is indicative of a situation where inventory-related supply flexibility could be constrained or nonexistent. This heightens supply concerns before an impending war in Iraq.

After Coalition forces have pushed further into Iraq securing most of the southern oilfields over the weekend, Kuwaiti fire fighters are able to enter Iraq and are able to extinguish one of the wellhead fires. Iraq's southern fields represent about 40% of the country's output. Damage is assessed to be relatively minimal. Some pockets or Iraqi resistance in the southern oilfields remain, however. Furthermore, heavy Iraqi resistance in some parts of Iraq gives rise to market speculation that the war could last longer than initially thought. The NYMEX near-month crude oil price rises 6.5%, to settle at $28.66 per barrel, as the war in Iraq as well as the situation in Nigeria have traders concerned.

December 2003

Oil prices fall 4% on the news that U.S. military forces capture Saddam Hussein near his hometown of Tikrit, Iraq.

June 2004

Near-month crude oil futures on the NYMEX reach a record nominal settlement high of $42.33 per barrel, with traders thought to be reacting to the weekend terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia on top of an already tight market. This is the highest nominal settlement price since the founding of the NYMEX crude oil futures market in 1983.

October 2004

The NYMEX WTI prompt month crude oil contract price closes at an alltime high of $55.17 per barrel after the Energy Information Administration reports a fifth straight weekly decrease in U.S. heating oil stocks. Lasting effects from Hurricane Ivan have also forced the shut-in of natural gas and crude oil production from the Gulf Coast. 2000.

March 2005

Tan explosion at BP's Texas City oil refinery kills 15 people and injures more than 70. In part due to market fears that the refinery blast will curtail gasoline supplies, the NYMEX WTI prompt month crude oil contract increases $1.03 to close at $54.84 per barrel. The 460,000-bbl/d refinery accounts for approximately 3% of U.S. refining capacity; however, the refinery blast did not significantly affect actual U.S. gasoline production.

September 2005

U.S. President George Bush directs DOE to release as much as 30 million barrels of crude oil from the SPR. This release, in the form of an online auction, comes after DOE has already released 13.2 million barrels of crude oil under short-term exchange agreements. The auction is a response to the impact of Hurricane Katrina on U.S. oil production in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) region, and it is the first emergencyinduced release from the SPR since the 1990-1991 Gulf War. Further, the International Energy Agency (IEA) agrees to release an additional 30 million barrels of oil from the commercial stocks held by its member countries.

Hurricane Rita makes landfall along the US Gulf Coast. Energy companies operating in the region had shut in almost all oil and natural gas production in anticipation of the storm. Refiners also had shut in over 3.9 million bbl/d of refining capacity, which, along with the refining capacity already shut down due to damage caused by Hurricane Katrina, represents over one-quarter of total US capacity. Many refineries begin to restart immediately following the storm, and oil and natural gas companies return to offshore platforms to assess damage. However, significant effects of Hurricane Rita continue to linger into 2006

April 2006

The front-month price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) closes above $75 for the first time in the history of the contract. A combination of rising global demand and geopolitical instability contribute to the higher price.

March 2007

Iranian naval vessels seize 15 British marines and sailors in the Persian Gulf near the maritime border of Iraq and Iran, accusing the British military personnel of straying into Iranian waters. The incident occurs amid rising diplomatic tensions at the United Nations over Iran's nuclear program, and helps push up world oil prices. As of March 30, the front-month price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) settles at $65.87, up from an average of $59 per barrel in February. Iran is a significant exporter of oil, with currently available trade statistics putting Iran's crude oil exports at 2.6 2.7 million bbl/d in 2006.

April 2007

Ruling party candidate Umaru Yar'Adua is declared the winner of the presidential election in Nigeria, while opposition candidates dispute the results and cite irregularities in the elections. Uncertainty surrounding possible unrest and violence in Nigeria's oil-producing regions following the election results helps push up world oil prices, with the price of front-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) settling at $65.89, up $2.51 from the previous closing price on Friday April 20. Oil supply disruptions from attacks against Nigeria's oil infrastructure since February 2006 have led to the shut-in of 587,000 bbl/d of production capacity.

February 2008

The nominal WTI crude oil price passed the $100 mark on the NYMEX, settling at a record high of $100.01 per barrel, the first time the near-month contract ever settled above $100 per barrel. Tight fundamentals evidenced by low levels of surplus capacity continue to put upward pressure on oil prices.

March 2008

Saboteurs blew up one of Iraq's two main oil export pipelines in southern Iraq, cutting about half a million barrels a day of oil exports, about a third of crude exports through Basra. Crude was trading up more than $1 at close to $107 a barrel after news of the attack. Iraq exported 1.54 million barrels per day from its main Basra oil terminal in February.

May 2008

President Bush signed into law a bill that temporarily halts adding oil to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the measure Congress passed in an effort to lower gasoline prices. The legislation forbids adding to the stockpile until crude prices drop below $75 a barrel. Later the NYMEX near-month WTI contract rose to over $130 per barrel for the first time, settling at $133.17 per gallon.

June 2008

The NYMEX near-month WTI contract rose to over $140 per barrel for the first time, settling at $140.21 per barrel. Oil prices have doubled from $70 a year ago.

July 2008

Oil prices dropped by more than $18 in the past week to $128.88 per barrel from the all-time peak of $147.27 set on 7/11. The fall in price was triggered by a 3 million barrel increase in U.S. crude stocks and falling U.S. demand according to data from the EIA, and as a fresh diplomatic initiative from Washington diluted tension over Iran.

September 2008

U.S. crude oil futures settled below the $100 a barrel level for the first time since March 4, 2008, after the damage wrought by Hurricane Ike was less than feared. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc's bankruptcy filing and fears about other financial institutions also weighed on oil futures. Oil prices soared more than 15 percent on Monday Sep 22nd , the biggest one-day gain on record, continuing a rally sparked by the expiry of the front-month futures contract and the U.S. rescue plan for its financial sector. WTI for October delivery settled up $16.37 at $120.92 per barrel. The contract for delivery in November, which was much more actively traded, was up only $6.62 at $109.37.

¹⁷⁰ Annual Oil Markets Chronology. 2008. Energy Information Administration.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/AOMC/Overview.html

Total Fuel Consumption (2007) - 344.4 MTOE87		(2524 Mboe)
Oil	- 138.2 MT	(1013 Mboe)
Natural Gas	- 75.2 MTOE	(551 Mboe)
Coal	- 105.9 MTOE	(776 Mboe)
Nuclear Energy	- 3.0 MTOE	(22 Mboe)
Hydro Electric	- 22.2 MTOE	(163 Mboe)

Africa generates just 3% of the world's electricity; South Africa generates more than 40% of the electricity produced in Africa88.88.
56% of the energy consumed in Africa comes from firewood89.
16% of Africa's energy is generated by Hydro-power90.
Only 7% of Africa's Hydro-power potential has been developed compared to 33% globally and 65% in Europe91.
Africa's Ethanol production makes up only 1% of total global output92.
2% of Africa's electricity comes from Nuclear Power93.
Cumulative Installed Wind Turbine Capacity (2007) - 469 MW94

Prospective Consumption / Resources

It is predicted that by the year 2030, wood burning will still account for nearly half the energy used in Africa95.
Total Energy Demand (2030) - 19 MBDOE
Africa will consume 6% of world's energy in 203096.
Africa total primary energy consumption by 2030 - 23.9 quadrillion Btu97


Liquids	– 8.8 quadrillion Btu
Natural Gas	- 7.5 quadrillion Btu
Coal	- 5.6 quadrillion Btu
Nuclear	- 0.2 quadrillion Btu
Other	- 1.8 quadrillion Btu

Cumulative Wind Power Capacity by end of 2012 - 3 GW 98
Africa's energy reserves are plentiful: It has nearly 8% of the world's proven gas reserves; nearly 10% of the world's oil; an estimated 13% of hydro-electric potential; and almost limitless sunshine 99.

87 BP Statistical Review. 2008. British Petroleum

88 Power Facts. 2008. BBC World Service.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/africa/2008/05/080502_africa_energy_facts.shtml

89 Power Facts. 2008. BBC World Service.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/africa/2008/05/080502_africa_energy_facts.shtml

90 Hydro & Wind Power Facts. 2008. BBC World Service. http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/africa/2008/05/080507_africa_energy_week_renewable_sources_facts.shtml

91 Hydro & Wind Power Facts. 2008. BBC World Service.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/africa/2008/05/080507_africa_energy_week_renewable_sources_facts.shtml

92 Bio-fuel Facts. 2008. BBC World Service.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/africa/2008/05/080507_power_facts_biofuels.shtml

93 Nuclear Power Facts. 2008. BBC World Service.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/africa/2008/05/080507_nuclear_facts.shtml

94 Renewables. 2008. BP Statistical Review.

95 Power Facts. 2008. BBC World Service.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/africa/2008/05/080502_africa_energy_facts.shtml

96 Facing Hard Truths. 2007. National Petroleum Council.

97 International Energy Outlook. 2008. Energy Information Administration.

98 Global Wind Report. 2007.

99 Power Facts. 2008. BBC World Service.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/africa/2008/05/080502_africa_energy_facts.shtml

Current Energy Usage

Total Fuel Consumption (2007) - 2987.5 MTOE100		(2524 Mboe)
Oil	- 949.4 MT	(6959 Mboe)
Natural Gas	- 1040.1 MTOE	(7624 Mboe)
Coal	- 533.7 MTOE	(3912 Mboe)
Nuclear Energy	- 275.6 MTOE	(2020 Mboe)
Hydro Electric	- 188.6 MTOE	(1382 Mboe)

Cumulative Installed Wind Turbine Capacity (2007) - 56851 MW101
Cumulative Ethanol Fuel Production (2007) - 886 TTOE102.

Prospective Consumption / Resources

Total Energy Demand (2030) - 74 MBDOE103
Europe will consume 21% of world's energy in 2030104.
Europe total primary energy consumption by 2030 - 161.1 quadrillion Btu105


Liquids	– 47.4 quadrillion Btu
Natural Gas	- 62.4 quadrillion Btu
Coal	- 23.8 quadrillion Btu
Nuclear	- 14.5 quadrillion Btu
Other	- 13.1 quadrillion Btu

Europe will consume 23.8 quadrillion Btu of Coal in 2030106.
European Wind Energy Industry will be worth over $109 Billion by 2020107.
Cumulative Wind Power Capacity by end of 2012 - 102 GW108
European Wind Power Industry has a target of installing 300 GW of Capacity by 2030109.
Vehicle fleets in Europe will grow annually at 0.9%110.
In Europe Natural Gas imports will grow to 85% of supply by 2030111.
Geo-thermal energy generation costs could fall to 40-80 euros/MWh by 2020 from 50-15- euros/MWh in 2005112.

¹⁰⁰ BP Statistical Review. 2008. British Petroleum

¹⁰¹ Renewables. 2008. BP Statistical Review.

¹⁰² Renewables. 2008. BP Statistical Review.

¹⁰³ Tomorrow’s Energy. 2006. Exxon Mobil.

¹⁰⁴ Facing Hard Truths. 2007. National Petroleum Council.

¹⁰⁵ International Energy Outlook. 2008. Energy Information Administration.

¹⁰⁶ International Energy Outlook. 2008. Energy Information Administration.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/coal.html

¹⁰⁷ Mark Scott and Cassidy Flanagan. 2008. Europe No 1 Spot in Sustainable Energy. BusinessWeek.
http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/aug2007/gb2007083_852915_page_2.htm

¹⁰⁸ Global Wind Report. 2007. GWEC.

¹⁰⁹ Pure Power. 2008 European Wind Energy Association.

¹¹⁰ Tomorrow’s Energy. 2006. Exxon Mobil.

¹¹¹ Tomorrow’s Energy. 2006. Exxon Mobil.

¹¹² Race for Alternative Energy. 2008. Frost & Sullivan.
http://www.frost.com/prod/servlet/pressrelease-pag?docid=139283602

Current Energy Usage

Total Fuel Consumption (2007) - 2838.6 MTOE113		(20807 Mboe)
Oil	- 1134.7 MT	(8317 Mboe)
Natural Gas	- 728.9 MTOE	(5343 Mboe)
Coal	- 613.3 MTOE	(4495 Mboe)
Nuclear Energy	- 215.6 MTOE	(1580 Mboe)
Hydro Electric	- 146.2 MTOE	(1072 Mboe)

Cumulative Installed Solar/PV Production (2006) - 664231 KW114.
Cumulative Installed Wind Turbine Capacity (2007) - 18810 MW115.
Cumulative Ethanol Fuel Production (2007) - 12381 TTOE116.

Prospective Consumption / Resources

Total Energy Demand (2030) - 68 MBDOE117.
North America will consume 21% of world's energy in 2030118.
North America total primary energy consumption by 2030 - 148.9 quadrillion Btu119.


Liquids	- 55.2 quadrillion Btu
Natural Gas	- 32.8 quadrillion Btu
Coal	- 32.4 quadrillion Btu
Nuclear	- 11.2 quadrillion Btu
Other	- 17.3 quadrillion Btu

Cumulative Wind Power Capacity by end of 2012 - 61.3 GW120
Canada and Mexico will account only for 8% of total North American Coal Consumption through 2030121.
Vehicle fleets in North America will grow at 1.2% annually till 2030122.
In North America LNG imports are expected to increase to about 25% of supply by 2030123.

¹¹³ BP Statistical Review. 2008. British Petroleum

¹¹⁴ Renewables. 2008. BP Statistical Review.

¹¹⁵ Renewables. 2008. BP Statistical Review.

¹¹⁶ Renewables. 2008. BP Statistical Review.

¹¹⁷ Tomorrow’s Energy. 2006. Exxon Mobil.

¹¹⁸ Facing Hard Truths. 2007. National Petroleum Council.

¹¹⁹ International Energy Outlook. 2008. Energy Information Administration.

¹²⁰ Global Wind Report. 2007. GWEC.

¹²¹ International Energy Outlook. 2008. Energy Information Administration.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/coal.html

¹²² Tomorrow’s Energy. 2006. Exxon Mobil.

¹²³ Tomorrow’s Energy. 2006. Exxon Mobil.

Current Energy Usage

Total Fuel Consumption (2007) - 552.9 MTOE124		(4053 Mboe)
Oil	- 252.0 MT	(1847 Mboe)
Natural Gas	- 121.1 MTOE	(888 Mboe)
Coal	- 22.4 MTOE	(164 mboe)
Nuclear Energy	- 4.4 MTOE	(32 Mboe)
Hydro Electric	- 153.1 MTOE	(1122 Mboe)

Cumulative Installed Wind Turbine Capacity (2007) - 581 MW125
Cumulative Ethanol Fuel Production (2007) - 11431 TTOE126

Prospective Consumption/Resources

Total Energy Demand (2030) - 18 MBDOE127
South America will consume 5% of world's energy in 2030128.
South America total primary energy consumption by 2030 - 38.3 quadrillion Btu129
Cumulative Wind Power Capacity by end of 2012 - 4.5 GW130


Liquids	– 16 quadrillion Btu
Natural Gas	- 9.3 quadrillion Btu
Coal	- 1.9 Quadrillion Btu
Nuclear	- 0.4 Quadrillion Btu
Other	- 10.8 Quadrillion Btu

124 BP Statistical Review. 2008. British Petroleum

125 Renewables. 2008. BP Statistical Review.

126 Renewables. 2008. BP Statistical Review.

127 Tomorrow’s Energy. 2006. Exxon Mobil.

128 Facing Hard Truths. 2007. National Petroleum Council.

129 International Energy Outlook. 2008. Energy Information Administration.

130 Global Wind Report. 2007. GWEC.

Hydro Power is expected to grow at just under 2% annually till 2030³⁷.
Hydroelectricity and other renewable energy consumption will grow to 59 quadrillion Btu by 2030³⁸.
Hydro Lifetime Carbon Emissions : 18 g/Kwh³⁹

³⁷ Tomorrow's Energy. 2006. Exxon Mobil.

³⁸ International Energy Outlook. 2008. Energy Information Administration.

³⁹ Carbon Calculus. 2008. Mother Jones.
http://www.motherjones.com/news/feature/2008/05/nuke-vs-solar-thecarbon-calculus.html

Number countries producing Geo-thermal energy could increase to 46 in 2010⁴⁰.
Total Geo-thermal capacity could increase to 13,500 MW or more by 2010⁴¹.
Geo-Thermal Lifetime Carbon Emissions : 15 g/Kwh⁴²

⁴⁰ GEA World Update. 2007. Geo-thermal Energy Association.
http://www.geoenergy.org/publications/reports/GEA%20World%20Update%202007.pdf

⁴¹ GEA World Update. 2007. Geo-thermal Energy Association.
www.geoenergy.org/publications/reports/GEA%20World%20Update%202007.pdf

⁴² Carbon Calculus. 2008. Mother Jones.
http://www.motherjones.com/news/feature/2008/05/nuke-vs-solar-thecarbon-calculus.html

Bio-fuels (global production and wholesale pricing of Ethanol and Bio-diesel) are projected to grow to $81.1 Billion by 2017 with an estimated
production of 45.9 Billion Gallons⁴³.
Bio-fuels will grow from 1.35 mbpd in 2008 to 1.95 mbpd by 2013⁴⁴.
Bio-fuels including Ethanol and Bio-diesel will grow to about 3 MBD in 2030⁴⁵.
Bio-fuels could account for 4%-7% of road fuel consumption by 2030⁴⁶.
2.7 Billion People i.e. one thirds of the world's population will still be using Biomass for daily energy needs by 2030⁴⁷.
Projected prices of Bio-fuels $ per barrel in 2030⁴⁸.

Ethanol from Sugarcane 25-35

Ethanol from Maize 25-35

Ethanol from Beet 25-35

Ethanol from Wheat 25-35

Ethanol from Lignocellulose 25-35

Bio-diesel from vegetable oils 25-35

Fuels made from Syngas 25-35

⁴³ Trends 2008. 2008. Clean Edge.
http://www.cleanedge.com/reports/reports-trends2008.php

⁴⁴ Press Release. 2008. Medium Term Oil Market Report. International Energy Agency.
http://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=267

⁴⁵ Tomorrow's Energy. 2006. Exxon Mobil.
⁴⁶ World Energy Outlook. 2006. International Energy Agency.
⁴⁷ World Energy Outlook. 2006. International Energy Agency.
⁴⁸ Royal Society. 2008. Economist.
http://www.economist.com/surveys/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11565647